Welcome to my October newsletter featuring insights and economic news impacting our local housing market.
Interest Rates
The early part of this week was not a great moment for bonds because of supply issues, as the market needs more bonds to cover the U.S. deficit. So that, plus looming inflation fears, pushed bond prices lower, which is not great for mortgage interest rates. That said, I have some of the lowest jumbo loan rates in the industry – 6.75%, APR 6.99% on a 10/1 ARM, with no banking relationship up to $5M, with the ability to close in 21 days or less.
A silver lining here is that mortgage rates are tied to the bond market. Hence, the more inflation cools off (which will happen in an elevated rate environment), the economy stabilizes, and bond yields drop, which means lower mortgage rates.
Looking at benchmark rates, there is a reasonable consensus that we are at or very close to a peak. The Fed may take one more quarter-point hike before the end of the year and, during their last meeting, coined the term higher for longer, which means general borrowing costs may remain at this level for longer instead of more hikes. This is one of the issues overhanging the bond market.
Do I think they will do another increase this year? The data I’m seeing is leaning towards no. Case in point – oil has dropped $10 a barrel, which has been a primary topic of inflation conversation when considering another hike. Additionally, please see the wage component of the employment report, which helps stabilize the bond market.
Economic Reports Impacting Our Housing Market
Labor Reports
To everyone’s surprise, The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Summary reported a substantial gain of 336,000 jobs to the U.S. economy, nearly double analysts’ expectations. The national unemployment rate remained at 3.8%. The positive note in the numbers is wage inflation (a data point watched closely by the Fed), which dropped to its lowest level (0.2%) in two years. It is a positive sign that caps a lot of inflationary fears.
Local Activity
I see more inventory hitting the market and a pronounced pickup in loan applications in the last ten days, especially for new home purchases under $5M.
We are also doing construction, hard money, and bridge loans. Many banks are not underwriting these types of loans for the time being. My deep network of lender resources has allowed me to fill these gaps with the ability to provide financing for many situations.
Recent Transactions
Here are some recent examples:
West LA | HELOC | $2.5M
70% LTV Financing
Culver City | Second Mortgage | $1.3M
70% LTV Financing
Hard Money Loan
Hermosa Beach | New Home Purchase | $8.5M
70% LTV Financing
10 Yr ARM
6.38% Interest Rate | 6.52% APR
Malibu | New Home Purchase | $3.085M
80% LTV Financing
30-yr Fixed Rate Loan
5.77% Interest Rate | 5.99% APR
Rate Locked Mid-August
Venice | Investment Property | $4.2M
65% LTV Financing
Bank Statement Loan
$3M Loan – based on rents & cash flow analysis
Key Economic Reports to watch for this month:
October 12 – Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), Initial Jobless Claims
October 18 – Building Permits, Housing Starts
October 19 – Existing Home Sales
October 25 – New Home Sales
October 26 – Pending Home Sales
I understand the fourth quarter has started with many challenges for buyers, homeowners, and real estate professionals. Today’s real estate market is unique, even for those who have weathered many cycles. In times like this, the best course of action is to rely on the guidance of individuals who have experience, and in the lending community, that also means a deep bench of lending solutions. This is where I shine, and I can help nearly any borrower get the funds they need.
Contact me today to discuss your goals and options.
Sincerely,
Mark Cohen